J. Phys. IV France
Volume 121, December 2004
Page(s) 171 - 184

J. Phys. IV France 121 (2004) 171-184

DOI: 10.1051/jp4:2004121011

Energy and climate change : Discussing two opposite evolutions

J.-M. Jancovici

Manicore (consulting company), 20 rue Georges Clemenceau, 91400 Orsay, France

The IPCC emission scenarios have been criticized in the past for their "lack of realism" concerning the cumulated fossil fuel consumption up to 2100, and the pattern of consumption throughout the 21$^{\rm st}$ century they assume. This articles examines briefly to what extent these scenarios are compatible with the data published otherwise by geologists regarding fossil fuels. On the other hand, these scenarios do not include an evolution in which stabilizing the atmospheric CO2 concentration is an explicit goal of the world as a whole. The second part of the article gives some elements regarding the material consumption that such an objective would imply if several billion men remain on earth.

© EDP Sciences 2004